19 February 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect sidewise to positive day to end the week. Decisive crossover point is 7230.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 February 2016: -

On 18 February 2015: FII Net Bought – INR 418.64:  DII Net Bought – INR – 712.12

So far this goes the way I was expecting. We saw intraday dip but it has not broken 7100 levels anyways. As long as it holds 7100 we have reasons to believe for higher crossover. I am expecting a stiff trading resistance at 7230. If it has to cross then today or Monday should be decisive day. I am seeing today’s session as choppy one.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting market to open on flat to lower. Any downside will get support at 7125-7100 levels. On higher side we may expect resistance at 7210-7230. If it can manage to surpass 7230 then we can see a massive short covering rise. I still believe for 7500 till budget day.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty February future – If opening goes around 7160 then it will be mid-way for trading. Technical charts are saying that it will go on 50-50 mode. We can expect support at 7120-7100 levels. I will opt buy if it find situation favourable for rise.

S&P 500 (USA) – This is what I have expected, few choppy sessions. I would not mind this choppy trend if market has to move higher to cross 1945. One can consider 1915 as key support. Trend can be side wise to positive as long as it holds 1915 levels. If it breaks 1915 then situation will again go in favour of bears only. cross above 1945 may be decisive but may not be an easy one.