21 September 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Unfilled gap and trade below 7940 will cause a move towards newer low of the month.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 September 2015: -

On 18 September 2015, FII Bought INR – 643.51 Crs and DII Bought INR 415.09 Crs

I was just not comfortable with rise in market. In spite of significant premium loss on Nifty Put option, I prefer to hold. I got the desired reward in last half of the day. More important is the subsequent sell off in US market. A word of optimism says that RBI should cut its rate. Well, I do not expect such when monsoon goes bad to worse.

Based on technical chart I still feel that we are about to get a most unwanted pattern by bulls in the form of gap down. Here is condition – if gap down goes below 7940, it may remain unfilled. Below 7940, it can test 7850 too. If it closes in this way then expiry may happen at lowest point of the month. The low point of the month is 7540 so far.

For today’s trading session, we may see gap down. Do not prefer to trade long in dip. It may not be possible to expect easy recovery. Below 7940 it can hit 7850. Will it happen by just today only? Yes, it may be.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – Simple way is that below 8000 levels, it can hit levels of 7900. I had anticipated this on Friday itself. It looks like to happen in gap down. If this happens then we have reasons to believe for a move towards 7860-7850 also. Do not buy the dip.

S&P 500 (USA) – It hit a high around 2020 on Fed decision day and now closed below 1960. All just has happened in less than 24 hours. It is showing the desired and talked weakness by us earlier. Historically, last week of September is known to be the worse week of the year. Will it be again? It yes then I have reasons to believe for levels below 1900.