18 September 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It may challenge levels above 7940 but it may not sustain. No euphoric rise is expected even after ‘No rate hike’ by US Fed.
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watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
For 18 September 2015: -
On 16 September 2015, FII Sold INR –
337.27 Crs and DII Bought INR 423.81 Crs
It was believed earlier that if fed
does not hike rate then global market would rally. Well, I cannot see any indices
go in rally mode. This may be perhaps market sensing less conviction for pause
mode by fed any further on long run. Before adding anything further I can say
that US fed wants some idea situation for rate hike by use of so many
conditions. Those conditions fulfilling in reality is just impossible. The way I
feel is that no one wants to take a blame of rate hike. So, as of now it is
indefinite period of zero rate.
Based on technical chart I still
feel that recovery may go in last phase. Closer resistance is at 7940-7960
levels.
For today’s trading session, we may
see just a little higher opening. I have few puts but just few days left for
expiry. My idea has not work for big dip but I still advise caution from long
at current levels. Even a small jerk in global market can cause further big
sell off. This may come as soon as next week itself. Believe it that Fed has
done its best.
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Strategy for Nifty September future – I took long on 7700 put
from Wednesday which may gave up a big part of premium but I am on limited risk
side. Looking on reactions on fed outcome I will decide for the next course of
action. I still feel that market may not cross 7980 levels so easily so sooner.
A negative close today will confirm for big dip next week.
S&P 500 (USA) – It should be noted that it was straight 55th
Fed meeting which goes with ‘no rate change’. Well, it was just first such
meeting when outcome came in favour of bulls but net result goes in favour of
bears. This is what we said on Wednesday. Now, fed makes this meeting as no
event but the way we saw sell off we can see brutal extension next week. I maintain
my price target at 1900 in post fed meet days.
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