18 September 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It may challenge levels above 7940 but it may not sustain. No euphoric rise is expected even after ‘No rate hike’ by US Fed.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 September 2015: -

On 16 September 2015, FII Sold INR – 337.27 Crs and DII Bought INR 423.81 Crs

It was believed earlier that if fed does not hike rate then global market would rally. Well, I cannot see any indices go in rally mode. This may be perhaps market sensing less conviction for pause mode by fed any further on long run. Before adding anything further I can say that US fed wants some idea situation for rate hike by use of so many conditions. Those conditions fulfilling in reality is just impossible. The way I feel is that no one wants to take a blame of rate hike. So, as of now it is indefinite period of zero rate.

Based on technical chart I still feel that recovery may go in last phase. Closer resistance is at 7940-7960 levels.

For today’s trading session, we may see just a little higher opening. I have few puts but just few days left for expiry. My idea has not work for big dip but I still advise caution from long at current levels. Even a small jerk in global market can cause further big sell off. This may come as soon as next week itself. Believe it that Fed has done its best.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – I took long on 7700 put from Wednesday which may gave up a big part of premium but I am on limited risk side. Looking on reactions on fed outcome I will decide for the next course of action. I still feel that market may not cross 7980 levels so easily so sooner. A negative close today will confirm for big dip next week.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It should be noted that it was straight 55^th Fed meeting which goes with ‘no rate change’. Well, it was just first such meeting when outcome came in favour of bulls but net result goes in favour of bears. This is what we said on Wednesday. Now, fed makes this meeting as no event but the way we saw sell off we can see brutal extension next week. I maintain my price target at 1900 in post fed meet days.