16 September 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Above 7880 it can challenge for 7940 but top will not sustain and closing may go negative.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 September 2015: -

On 15 September 2015, FII Sold INR – 910.85 Crs and DII Bought INR 480.50 Crs

A small inverse H&S has formed on chart with n-line at 7850 levels. I gave resistance as 7880 for last trading session and we saw dip from same levels. Right now backed by rise in US market we may see a higher opening. If this opening comes around 7880 then we may see some attempt by market to stay higher. Based on Elliott wave theory I can say that this rise will not sustain by close. Now have a holiday tomorrow and this is something which came on some odd time. Friday can be a big big gap down.

Time is on and clock is ticking for the possible big dip. This kind of trading pattern used to come once in eight years. On broader view, Nifty is just making attempt to test to n-line again. Technically, failure of this will cause a dip towards 6500 levels. Remember, I am talking about big 1300-1400 points of wash out. Although, I used to trade long for trading then also, I cannot hide this fact.

For today’s trading session, we may see higher opening. This opening can take Nifty towards 7900-7940 if it can sustain tall above 7880. I strongly warn for caution at higher levels, especially near 7940. If it react at higher levels then closing may go in negative.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – I took long on 7700 put from yesterday. Even after gap up I have plan to hold by long on put. I am open to average it out to hold for Friday. We have ample profit from options in past two weeks. Nifty future has hurdle at 7940-7950. I strongly expect a reaction in second half which can give levels below 7800 too.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is coming close to 1990-2000 levels backed by bull’s optimism. Whole world is waiting for fed next meeting. I strongly feel that outcome should be negative for market. Take a note that I am not saying weather rate hike will come or not, I saying for just negative outcome. Chart patterns are shaping for a dip. By Friday, S&P can be below 1900 levels.