24 August 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: BLACK THURSDAY then a BLACK FRIDAY and now a BLACK MONDAY opening. 8100 may be challenged.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 August 2015: -

On 21 August 2015, FII Sold INR – 2340.60 crs and DII Bought INR 1524.10 crs

I booked my short at 8240 which I had shored at 8410. I tried long to gain small on Friday’s session itself. Since then we have no position. Have a look how Dow Jones Industrial Average fooled bulls. It lost over 400 points in a single trading session on Friday when Indian market was fooled by attempt of recovery. I have sensed this to save ourselves.

We had BLACK THURSDAY then a BLACK FRIDAY and now a BLACK MONDAY opening. I know that many will bet for recovery from today’s low as its again falling on good Fibonacci count.  

Read this again what was running whole last week, “My conclusion for resistance remains same. Resistance is in the zone of 8530-8550 but I do not see any decisive direction in market now. It can swing up and down for few move times by this week itself. Some key momentum indicators like MACD is showing negative divergence which is giving a favour for bears. You must have seen the impact of negative divergence. My worst case target is 8000-7800.”

For today’s trading session, I am expecting 8100 now by today itself. No recovery can sustain without a hit near at 8100.

Well, Mr. Prime Minister, have look on equation of INR vs USD. Do controls before things go out of hand? The blind assurance cannot help for longer run. As per economy is concern, I fail to see any great chance with a change in power at centre. Situation is really alarming. Even a small rise in crude oil price will result rupee hitting 70.

Crude oil hitting $ 45/bbl and we are still paying INR 67 per litre. – Indians stopped raising their point.

Indian Rupee hitting 67 against USD. - Indians stopped raising their point.   

Soldiers are still dying at border. - Indians stopped raising their point.

Onions are pricing more than petrol. - Indians stopped raising their point.

Is this the definition of ache din then, mitro? Since 2008, world has saved only and only because of excessive stimulus money. I gave much reason to believe on our study in past many months. So, I have a very strong warning – a situation worse than 2008 is coming in coming few years.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – One should prepare for nasty opening today. Big question is shall I short this gap down again? If not then I will not trade today. My expected target is 8100 somehow. If not on dot then I can see a levels of nearby 8100.

S&P 500 (USA) – I wrote about this fall since November 2014. After 8 months of choppy trades, it finally slipped miserably in very last few days of August. I can hope that traders must have gained handsomely. I still have a next target in my mind as 1950 and then a relief rally. I gave a call for “long term top” at 2135. Now, most people will agree.