20 August 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: You have seen odd bounce from low and odd fall from high – this is effect of “W” pattern. Need to see break below 8400 … … …

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 August 2015: -

On 19 August 2015, FII Sold INR – 423.72 crs and DII Bought INR 383.22 crs

Once again we had seen resistance of 8550 in action and market has slipped from higher levels. Crucial is that it taken a bounce from opening low and build a momentum but failed at top. This is what “W” pattern can do. We can see lot of such indecisive trades.

My conclusion for resistance remains same. Resistance is in the zone of 8530-8550 but I do not see any decisive direction in market now. It can swing up and down for few move times by this week itself. Some key momentum indicators like MACD is showing negative divergence which is giving a favour for bears.

For today’s trading session, we can again see a negative start just like yesterday. It may see a gap down opening of 50 points. As long as this “W” pattern sustain we can say for a bounce from low. This pattern may violate to see a direction only if it can break the range of 8400 to 8550. So, question is will it break 8400?

Well, Mr. Prime Minister, have look on equation of INR vs USD. Do controls before things go out of hand? The blind assurance cannot help for longer run. As per economy is concern, I fail to see any great chance with a change in power at centre. Situation is really alarming. Even a small rise in crude oil price will result rupee hitting 70.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Yesterday, we took profit @ 8450 and then added short again in last minutes at 8500+ levels. Now, it will again open around 8450 due to fall in US market last night. If it does not break further below 8425-8415 levels then I may opt to cover my short with whatever profit comes. If it breaks then it can be a black Thursday or it may prepare for black Friday. Well, as long as “W” pattern is there it may not be easy.

S&P 500 (USA) – So, it has moved as expected by us. A dip from 2100+ levels to test support of 2070. It has happened with lesser irritation right now. If I am right then I should expect move dip from here. On higher side resistance will remains at 2110 levels. I can again repeat that as long as it is below 2110 this market is for bears but I cannot say when those decisive bearish breaks out come on long term chart will. I am talking about 2040. Is it coming sooner?