12 August 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Short term top done and now selling can intensify. Do not catch falling knife till this week at least. 8300 may be on hunt.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 August 2015: -

On 11 August 2015, FII Sold INR – 736.81 crs and DII Bought INR 130.74 crs

Are we still holding our short? Yes, we still prefer to hold. Nifty is likely to test our well quoted target of 8400. This sell off can again intensify as we saw close below 8490 which has derived sell based by Elliott wave theory. If it breaks 8400 then one can expect a move towards 8300 to 8275 levels too.

Break below 8490 will give a sell based on Elliott wave theory. We had a reverse H&S pattern two-three weeks back. Now, it is showing a H&S pattern on daily chart. N-line is at 8300 levels. We are on RS right now. My best case deal is for a fall of 300 points for this week with possibility of rise as ‘very limited’ from current levels.

For today’s trading session, firstly do not hope for recovery. Even if it comes then also it may not have longer life. Use any intraday recovery for short only. One can expect stiff trading resistance in the zone of 8490 to 8500. I would not surprise if I see Nifty even at 8200 by this weekend.

Well, Mr. Prime Minister, have look on equation of INR vs USD. Do controls before things go out of hand? The blind assurance cannot help for longer run. As per economy is concern, I fail to see any great chance with a change in power at centre.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – We still prefer to hold Nifty which we shorted on dot at 8645. I have some bigger and riskier plan this time. I will hold this short till Friday. If things go the way I am anticipating then we can get real big targets. We still have short on BANK NIFTY. I have already anticipated for another short term top when Nifty was near 8600. Shall we prefer for 8000 too?

S&P 500 (USA) – It has washed the recovery again. This kind of pattern used to emerge near top only. This is happening from past many months without a decisive break down. It got sold yesterday but recovered some from low. Now, we can still expect fall based on technical chart. Those who are short should hold with patience. It is likely to hit 2045-2040 support levels in next three trading sessions. Let us see if this happens or not. I am expecting this from past so many months.