11 August 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: As said, a sell emerges. Now, below 8490 we can see another round of panic sell off. No higher levels are safe for bulls.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 August 2015: -

On 10 August 2015, FII Sold INR – 14.43 crs and DII Bought INR 50.05 crs

I was sensing what has happened yesterday and issued warning during intraday session too. We got some odd bounce in US market last night but that is not going to change the fate of Indian market. It is again making a pattern of short term top. Check yesterday’s low. It was at 8497 while high was at 8621. It was too big for the day but majority of move came just in last hour of trade. Equally, it was on verge of give sell signal based on Elliott wave theory which I talked yesterday too.

Break below 8490 will give a sell based on Elliott wave theory. We had a reverse H&S pattern two-three weeks back. Now, it is showing a H&S pattern on daily chart. N-line is at 8300 levels. We are on RS right now. My best case deal is for a fall of 300 points for this week with possibility of rise as ‘very limited’ from current levels.

For today’s trading session, one can expect some higher opening backed by strong rise in US market. If by any chance Nifty goes below 8490 then we can see another round of panic sell off. No higher levels can be safe as of now. Remember, yesterday’s selling was just first day of selling. Even if it close small positive then also it is sell now.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – We took short on NIFTY Future almost on dot high point of the day and carry forward. I may see some higher trades today compared to where it has closed. Then also I will refer to hold this short for a move towards 8400 levels. On higher side 8565 and 8600 levels will be resistance.

S&P 500 (USA) – Does this bounce makes any sense or meaning? As long as it is staying below 2110 we cannot see anything changing. This just gives another odd bounce to short. I suggest trading on short side in this kind of rise. On higher side even if it manages to stay above 2110, it can maximum move by further 1% to give a test of 2135. Crossing above 2135 has failed countless times I past many months. Below 2095 it will give go in the grip of bears.