Thursday, 30 July 2015

30 July 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Avoid trading on expiry day. Technical resistance at 8400-8425.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
For 30 July 2015: -

On 29 July 2015, FII Sold INR – 186.24 crs and DII Bought INR 642.69 crs
We have derivative expiry of July series today. Ideally, I do not trade expiry day. As of now, Nifty has neither broken 8300 support nor able to cross any higher resistance. Few technical momentum indicators are on sell side. This makes this market sell-on-rise.
Once it has broken 8470 it has generated a support at 8300 but not it is looking to break that support too. We can expect expiry to go around lower levels. Clearly, it has altered the effect of reverse H&S pattern. Sooner another round of sell off may start.
For today’s trading session, I am expecting a silent opening and then we can see see-saw movement. I still expect that market may head lower any moment. There are two decisive resistance on upside. One is at 8400 and next is at 8425. Above 8425, it may resume momentum for bulls.
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Strategy for Nifty August future – It is just not easy to trade expiry. I may open near 8440 as indicated by SGX Nifty but it will face resistance at higher levels. I do not like to trade expiry day and hence I will avoid trading on index for today too. Just like, we have no trade yesterday either. I like to see resistance emerging at higher levels. If this higher levels can be 8450 then it will be very fine but it is just a hope.  

S&P 500 (USA) – Bulls can say another awesome return. S&P is getting closer towards 2110. It is up and firm up above 2100 marks to give a hint for short term bullish view. How many times bulls get trapped at these kinds of higher levels? Equally, one cannot short these levels this time. I expect some more upside on S&P. It may head towards 2130-2135 levels. Trades are not suggested at these levels as I am firm on my view for long term top formation since November 2014 itself. 

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