22 July 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Tired bulls gave a win for bears. Last and most crucial support range is from 8480 to 8450. Can it bounce from n-line of reverse H&S?

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For 22 July 2015: -

On 21 July 2015, FII Sold INR – 226.88 crs and DII Bought INR 146.32 crs

I said that Nifty is tiring now but I was not expecting what has happened in last hour yesterday. It was too brutal crushing of bulls. We were out from our last long only at 8622 and saved our self to a big extent. Equally, we have not opted to trade short either as it was supposed to re-test of n-line of reverse H&S pattern. So far I am taking this as same way.

Technical charts are giving one vital support at 5480 levels which is still 50 points away. If it has to bounce then it has to save 8480. At one sense failure at 8650 is itself a sign of weakness which I definitely missed to short on anticipated strength of reverse H&S pattern. Shorting now in dip may be mistake number two.

For today’s trading session, I am expecting a gap down. It may open around 8480 levels. Now, this may be critical point to trade. It can either bounce to hit 8600+ levels again (in case of confirmation of reverse H&S) or it may go back to 8300 levels. This time it wouldn’t stop at 8300. If this goes to test 8300 then we have higher chance of knocking 8000 levels again.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – It is going to be difficult to trade short now as yesterday’s last hour selling was too steep to trade. At least, I missed this. Here, I have levels of 8500-8490 which I like to see before concluding for trade. On higher side, there is no levels which can be named as safer so far. One point is 8570. Let us see how safe trade can be for today.

S&P 500 (USA) – 2135 was never be easier for S&P. It bounced from 2045 and turns weak exactly on 2135 resistance mark. What is next now? Can it fall? Yes, it can. If it falls then it can fall very brutally again. Technical charts are suggesting that we can expect a dip towards 2115 first and then it can hit 2095 levels sooner by this week itself. In worse case it can break 2095 also. Do not prefer to take any long unless it breaks 2135 levels.