22 June 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: On expiry week, caution advised. Above 8200, bulls may try to take it to 8300 !!!

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For 22 June 2015: -

On 19 June 2015, FII Sold INR – 106.12 crs and DII Bought INR 447.55 crs

We are in derivative expiry week and volatility is expected at higher levels. We saw a high around 8250 which is well 300 points from recent low of 7940 levels. I have already quoted that above 8200 it may try to give a test towards 8300. It is very much possible. A key intraday point is at 8280 and then a move towards 8300+.  Shall I call off threat analysis? No. it will be a part of study so that traders can save themselves from any investment bet. July month may not be good for equity price.

I AM KEEPING CORE OF ANALYSIS AS IT IS. Technical charts have warning sign below 8000 on closing basis. It is suggesting or says giving a hint that we see multiple closing below 7960 then we may be in the position to say that market has done a long term top and scope for fall will open. It may be one of the biggest H&S pattern in past more than 10 years on chart. This can result a fall towards 7000 levels. It is caution time for investment. Is economy and stock market paying price for over hyped political language?

For today’s trading session, we can expect opening levels as flat to positive. My desired target range s 8280 to 8300 levels. Will banking stock participate? A clear answer is a key for further move on index. Unfortunately I am not able to see the desired strength. Majority of rise came with Reliance. We all know most of the time Indian indices used to make a top with rise in Reliance. Key support is 8180-8200 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty June future – I am not suggesting any trade as of now. It will face a resistance at 8300 or higher levels. So far, it may be a day with buy in dip but not to buy on rise. As Nifty has already gained for six straight say so I am advising caution at higher levels. Before expiry, some weak bulls may try to pull their hands.

S&P 500 (USA) – Friday’s dip again came in line with my expectation as resistance were supposed to emerge at 2125 to 2135 levels. I still stick on my point that US market has no big room for rise and it is under a long term top formation. Even SPX VIX is justifying the views from past few months. Only thing which is saving market is that market-men are not ready to give up but they will give up sooner or later. Expect a down week.