15 January 2015: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Leaving 50 DMA as resistance is a sign of price fall in near term. Once again, second half of January demands caution at higher levels.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 15 January 2015: -
On 14 January 2015, FII Sold INR 69.74 crs and DII Sold INR
223.98 crs
It has failed to break 50 DMA on higher side and a sell off
hit from higher levels again. We saw a wild last hour of trade and all has happened
due to just one stock. It was HINDUNILVR again to save index. It has gained
over 4.50% to save Nifty form any bigger cut. Think – from 760 to 934 without
price correction. It is not easy to deal.
Based on Elliott wave theory we are in corrective up wave ‘c’
which will also be divided in three waves as shown in given chart. It has
fulfilled the condition of top of wave ‘c’ in wave (b) itself. Big question is
that if this is only the pullback in wave ‘c’ then we may not see the violation
of 8445.
We saw another sell off in US market again last night. It is
fair to say that at the beginning of year 2015, US market is struggling to
settle at higher levels. This may be early sign of weakness.
For today’s session, it will get some gap down opening due to
lower close in US market last night. Technically, zone of 8250 to 8235 will act
support in dip. Somehow it is suggesting me that Nifty can go around 100 DMA supports
which are near to 8150 levels. Technical resistance will be at 8300 and 8340
levels.
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Strategy for Nifty January
future – One can
expecting around 8280 to 8270 levels. Yesterday’s low of 8244 will be a key support.
If it can sustain below 8240 for 5-10 minutes then expect a panic sell off which
can result for a move for 100 to 150 points of sell in coming few days. Do not
buy rise as it is designed to get support from just one stock. How much more
has left for HINDUNILVR.
S&P 500 (USA) – Somehow bulls are looking under
trouble. It has traded below 2000 levels also but recovered from low. It is too
early to conclude for change in trend but equally it is not giving comfort to
anyone. I still believe that second half of month may be different. For second
half of the month – if it stands below 2000 on closing basis then it will give
a weapon in the hand of bears.
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