17 October 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 100 DMA for NIFTY is at 7737. A short term bottom may come sooner now either at 7700 or max at 7600 levels. Do not add fresh positional short from low.
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 17 October 2014: -
On 16 October 2014, FII Sold INR 1128.37 crs and DII Bought
INR 664.45 crs
It was quite unnoticed that Nifty came at 100 DMA which is at
7737. So, question is that will it take a pause in fall. It’s important to note
that Indian market has shown great resilience in past few days against the
global sell off. Now, global sell off may see pause or recovery anytime.
Based on Elliott wave, we may be on 1.618 times support to
form a base for trending wave ‘c’ which is downside in nature. It’s the prime
reason that I am saying that a short term bottom may come at 7600 or at 7700
levels sooner. Well, it does not mean that we will see new high. When I am
quoting this then also I worried based on weekly chart which has generated a
target of 7600-7500. Does it mean that there will be a day of 100 point swing
from low? It may be true. Today is last trading day of the week.
Can we gain strength before Diwali? There is no clear cut
sign yet. Historically, Indian market used to be sluggish before Diwali. Most
of the time, real decisive strength used to come after Diwali session which
used to continue till last of December. If weakness comes after Diwali then
also, it used to last longer. So probably, based on market cycle, we are in
indecisive zone for short term.
For today’s trading session, 7800 to 7825 will act as
resistance while 7730 to 7700 will act as support. Just prepare for another wild
day but do not short from low. Do take a note that we have 100 DMA and Elliott
wave support almost at same levels.
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Strategy for Nifty October
future – Nifty October
future may take some positive opening above 7800 levels as indicated by SGX
Nifty. Technically, it will take support at 7780 to 7760 after opening. I am
not very sure if we should believe initial quote as it has extended lower low
on daily chart. This is still a bearish formation. I am just considering hope
based on market cycle and some key Elliott wave support.
S&P 500 (USA) – I still believe that 1820 to 1800
must be a support to invite consolidation. I am not suggesting shorting from
low at any cost. It may be a trap for weak bears. Market flush out bears of 1850 very soon with
small spike of rise. I am looking for 1900 as target and resistance as well. It
may not be bad idea to stay away from US indices for the time being.
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