01 October 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Trading support = 7925-7890-7840. Today is last trading day before long weekend. Expect some nervous selling in second half of global cues remains weak.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 01 October 2014: -

On 30 September 2014, FII Sold INR 485.93 crs and DII Bought INR 201.24 crs

It was another typical bounce after RBI policy hours and then a fall in second half. It has hit a low at 7924 which was just on dot on our mentioned support of 7925. So far, I say that it has moved on suggested road map. Technically, charts are still weak and I believe that it can break 7840 levels too.

I have mentioned on my weekly analysis that it should see a negative weekly close. Past week closing was at 7968. Today is last trading day of the week. So far, weekly chart is unchanged. So, we should expect a slip today. Today’s fall may be moderate in nature. It may include the nervousness of long weekend. Take a note that market will open directly on next Tuesday, it means we have 5 days holiday. In uncertain environment, this kind of situation favours bears. So we may see late half sell off again today.

For today’s trading session, based on chart, 7925 is again crucial. Break below 7925 should give us levels of 7890 and the test towards 7850 too. We may get levels of 7925 in initial minutes itself. We have some 7900 put form good levels which we hold overnight. On higher side 7990-8000 levels will offer stiff resistance. Cross above 8000 will give levels of 8030.  

I am still saying same words. Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor – Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for emerging market. I am writing this paragraph from past many trading sessions. I am quoting above remark form past many days. Indian Rupee moved from 60.25 to 61.90 in past 20 days.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – SGX Nifty is giving a hint for downside opening of approximately 20-25 points. Can it be sufficient to break yesterday’s low? It may be. Technical chart analysis suggests that if it breaks below 7955 then we can immediately see some rapid fall of further 30-40 points. If not then we may see another irritating bounce. Technical resistance on bounce can be at 8020. Cross above can generate a buy signal.

S&P 500 (USA) – The swing continues. S&P rebounded form low on Monday and slipped from high on yesterday. This kind of volatility will continues as long as it is above 1956 levels but in my view this is still governed by bearish views. Sooner or later it will break the lower levels of 1956. I do not think that it will touch or cross even 2000 marks easily or in sooner days. Those who have short from high, hold it. To add fresh short wait for the decisive break below 1956.