30 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A 40 point gap down may turn to bear gap down. Sooner or later 7840 will break so one must avoid buying. Trading support = 7925-7890-7840

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 September 2014: -

On 29 September 2014, FII Bought INR 150.10 crs and DII Bought INR 234.52 crs

It was almost a muted yesterday. Nifty has neither gone above 8000 levels nor slipped below 7925. I am dividing recent trading in to two parts of consolidation. One range is 8000 to 7925 and next range is 7925 to 7840. Unless it breaks below 7840, we cannot see decisive break based on chart.

One need to note that option market is giving a hint for trading range of 400 points for this month. This range can be from 8100 to 7700 or from 8000 to 7600 levels. Mid cap and small cap indices are struggling near top levels.

For today’s trading session, we will see start point at lower levels. So, it will get immediate support at 7925 levels. If it breaks then we will see new downside levels. In simple way, break below 7925 will cause a fall towards 7850 to 7850 levels. At some point, Nifty will break 7840 in this month of trade to see more downside levels.

I am still saying same words. Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor – Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for emerging market. I am writing this paragraph from past many trading sessions.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – SGX Nifty is giving a hint for downside opening of approximately 40 points. This is big; mind it this is big one. It may push NIFTY October future below 7970 levels which was yesterday’s low. If this happens then we can see a fresh and rapid fall. Trading may be very volatile and random. Use rising impulse to short Nifty future. Closing may go near to low point of the day.

S&P 500 (USA) – It got another save at lower levels from 1964. Real support is at 1956 which is saving and bounces are coming. I still say, so far these are just weak bounce. Recent trading bounces are confirming that 1956 is a good support and technician need to respect the levels. So, here is the caution before time. Do not add short from lower levels unless it breaks 1956 on lower side. Equally, do not hesitate to short in the range of 1990 to 2000 levels.