29 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Just be cautious on rise if it comes before RBI policy which will come tomorrow. Technical resistance for Nifty = 8000. Strong base support at 7850-7840!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 29 September 2014: -

On 26 September 2014, FII Sold INR 1133.64 crs and DII Bought INR 1335.33 crs

Who bought after S&P booster dose? It was not buying by FIIs as suggested by above data. Now, all eyes are on RBI policy which is scheduled to come tomorrow. Optimism has grown a lot but I am not expecting any rate change before festival season. Best thing that market can have will be positive wording by RBI governor over growth but that has already discounted by market.

Technical chart set up may look positive on hourly chart after a bounce from 7840. This has less effect on daily chart. It is just saying that some steam may come on Monday morning hours. Well, I must warn that an impulsive rise always bring to threat to be trapped on rise too. Just, be cautions at higher end near to 8000 levels. Sooner, it can change the chart’s view on hourly movements too.  

I still find charts of mid cap stocks as weak one. Many mid cap and small cap stocks will see continuation of selling. I have a caution on stocks like HFCL, which has moved from 13 to 24 and now at 19. Make sure that you do not get trap in such stocks. My past caution on JPASSOCIAT, GMRINFRA and UNITECH slipped near to 20% past week.

For today’s trading session, we will see resistance at 8000 levels on higher side. In the down side, it will get support at 7925 to 7900 levels. If it breaks 7900 by any chance, today or tomorrow, then it has bright prospect of breaking part week low of 7840 too. Can cross over of 8000 give set to buy for 100 points? This may not be impossible but surely a tougher deal.

I am still saying same words. Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor – Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for emerging market. I am writing this paragraph from past many trading sessions.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – I am expecting a flat opening. Immediate technical resistance is at 8060 levels. Cross above 8060 should result a move towards 8100 levels but such higher levels may not sustain. We may see the generation of saturation point near 8100 levels. Below 8000, it can invite selling towards 7960 to 7950 levels by today itself. Do not expect a mute market.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has bounced before hitting 1956 but this bounce is not a bounce which can stop bear’s party. Charts are suggesting that as long as S&P is below 2000 we have reasons to expect sell off from higher levels. S&P will trade throughout the week. Trading range can be 2000 to 1956 only with a weekly top either at 1988 or at 2000. I can say, use rise to short this recovery. October may be an ugly month for equity price. DAX to see major hit sooner now.