25 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: You can expect volatility with range 100 points but expiry be go near 8000 levels only. Technical resistance = 20 DMA @ 8064 !!! Support = 7950-7925 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 September 2014: -

On 24 September 2014, FII Sold INR 793.65 crs and DII Sold INR 15.29 crs

We have derivative expiry today for September month series. I have quoted a support of 7925 yesterday. Nifty hit a low at 7950 and got a dead bounce. Yesterday’s bounce gave us possible reversal bar if Nifty spot manage to sustain above 8030 to 8050 levels. It may not be easy for market but not impossible. 

Two crucial moving averages are 20 DMA and 50 DMA.  20 DMA is at 8064 now and it will act as resistance. It means that above 8064, bears will have no space. In case of derivative expiry day panic sell off, we will have support at 7925 to 7950 levels.

A rise favours bulls and a fall favours bears. It may not be true when market tries reversal. Frequent reversal patterns from high and low is just showing market’s indecision. So, yesterday’s pullback should not be taken as hangover. Although I cannot ignore candle pattern with formed due to pullback. I am taking charting conclusion but not sentiment. On some odd development, SC of India has cancelled all coal blocks allocation except just 4. A huge setback for market sentiment.

For today’s trading session, opening may be little higher as suggested by SGX Nifty after a huge rally in US market overnight. Higher opening may face resistance at 8064 after opening. It is little wider but it is derivative expiry too. Try to avoid trading on derivative expiry day. If it sustain below 7890 for 5-10 minutes then I can expect another move towards 7950 to 7925 levels.

I am still saying same words. Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor – Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for emerging market.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – SGX Nifty is suggesting that we may have opening near 8080 levels. Technical resistance will emerge at 8100 immediately after opening. Above 8100, it may favour bulls. In the down side it will get support at 8050 and then at 8000 levels. I hope for 100 points trading range for expiry day while expecting that expiry will go on dead flat note. 

S&P 500 (USA) – Once again, it hit 1979 and bounced for second time. Technically, it is showing that this bounce will face resistance at 2000 levels. As long as it is below 2000, we should not give meaning to any bounce from current levels. On higher side we will see another stiff resistance at 2011 and 2019 on cross above 2000 levels. I can say for short till it is below 2000 levels.