25 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: You can expect volatility with range 100 points but expiry be go near 8000 levels only. Technical resistance = 20 DMA @ 8064 !!! Support = 7950-7925 !!!
You must read previous articles and watch the given chart
carefully to understand this article completely.
For 25 September 2014: -
On 24 September 2014, FII Sold INR 793.65 crs and DII Sold
INR 15.29 crs
We have derivative expiry today for September month series. I
have quoted a support of 7925 yesterday. Nifty hit a low at 7950 and got a dead
bounce. Yesterday’s bounce gave us possible reversal bar if Nifty spot manage
to sustain above 8030 to 8050 levels. It may not be easy for market but not
impossible.
Two crucial moving averages are 20 DMA and 50 DMA. 20 DMA is at 8064 now and it will act as
resistance. It means that above 8064, bears will have no space. In case of
derivative expiry day panic sell off, we will have support at 7925 to 7950
levels.
A rise favours bulls and a fall favours bears. It may not be
true when market tries reversal. Frequent reversal patterns from high and low
is just showing market’s indecision. So, yesterday’s pullback should not be
taken as hangover. Although I cannot ignore candle pattern with formed due to
pullback. I am taking charting conclusion but not sentiment. On some odd
development, SC of India has cancelled all coal blocks allocation except just
4. A huge setback for market sentiment.
For today’s trading session, opening may be little higher as
suggested by SGX Nifty after a huge rally in US market overnight. Higher
opening may face resistance at 8064 after opening. It is little wider but it is
derivative expiry too. Try to avoid trading on derivative expiry day. If it
sustain below 7890 for 5-10 minutes then I can expect another move towards 7950
to 7925 levels.
I am still saying same words. Spoiler for global market can
be just one big factor – Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging
market is again showing fear on chart against USD. What can be good for US
market may not be good for emerging market.
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Strategy for Nifty October
future – SGX Nifty is
suggesting that we may have opening near 8080 levels. Technical resistance will
emerge at 8100 immediately after opening. Above 8100, it may favour bulls. In
the down side it will get support at 8050 and then at 8000 levels. I hope for
100 points trading range for expiry day while expecting that expiry will go on
dead flat note.
S&P 500 (USA) – Once again, it hit 1979 and bounced
for second time. Technically, it is showing that this bounce will face
resistance at 2000 levels. As long as it is below 2000, we should not give
meaning to any bounce from current levels. On higher side we will see another
stiff resistance at 2011 and 2019 on cross above 2000 levels. I can say for
short till it is below 2000 levels.
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