23 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has another wild bounce yesterday before expiry to remove almost all practical shorts from system. NIFTY still has resistance at 8181 and support at 8050!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 September 2014: -

On 22 September 2014, FII Sold INR 186.41 crs and DII Bought INR 31.49 crs

Once again, FIIs has sold in cash market and Nifty soared from its intraday low with massive support from short covering. All those happened in second half only. Now, this is something which is not very unexpected on derivative expiry week. Hence, I took my profit on shorts in very initial minute only before adding shorts on metal stocks.

What I am seeing right now is that Nifty is standing tall against global cues. This gives us a hint that Nifty is relatively very strong but this is not a conclusion by technical analysis. It is only momentum that favours rise. 20 SMA support comes at 8052 now. The zone of 8181 to 8050 may be a zone of consolidation or say, zig zag moves.

For today’s trading session, opening may go in negative again. Question remains same – Will bulls allow this one to be bear gap down. Remember, yesterday was not a bear gap down as it opened down but filled in a great way.

I am still saying same words. Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor – Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for emerging market.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – It is going to be a gap down opening. Technical support will again emerge at 8150 levels, just like yesterday. So many dips get bought in this market. Can it be another one? If I am advising caution from long at higher levels, equally I am advising caution to short from lower levels. After gap down it’s safer to wait for breakdown of 8150 to 8130 support band.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is little too wild. I was expecting little more time before hitting 1990 but it is looking in to hurry.  A low which was tested last week will play a crucial role. Hence, now onwards, below 1979 will give us my desired target of 1956 levels. On higher side, 2013 and 2019 may not be easy to cross. Think to be bullish only on close above 2013 or intraday crossover of 2020. Way too far now !!!