11 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once again, I will say to watch 8080 support carefully before 8050. Unless Nifty close below 8050, bulls just have upper hand over this market.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 September 2014: -

On 10 September 2014, FII Sold INR 9.91 crs and DII Sold INR 511.25 crs

I said yesterday that 8080 is a threshold point for bears. It hit a low at 8082 and bounced to hit a high at 8110 in last hour of trade. There is a cycle of bounce in every last hour of trade from past many trading sessions. It just suggests that bulls are taking charge in last hour to trap bears. As long as this cycle sustain we cannot think about any meaningful correction. Yesterday’s dip was 0.60% which is biggest correction after 7540 levels.

My focus will be again at 8080 to get a way for 8050. As long as it is above 8050 it is hard to say any top formation yet. Alter way is that if it fails to break 8080 then it will be named as only one pull back. I usually do not visit currency market but I heard that Indian rupee has shown usual weakness in past two trading days and now near to 61. FIIs money flow has turned negative yesterday. These are few factors which is still giving a strong word of ‘caution’.  

For today’s trading session, I am suggesting for a threshold point at 8080 after opening. If it sustain below 8080 for 15 minutes then we can expect 8050 levels. Further, if it breaks 8050 then we can see a drag towards 8000 levels too. I would not be surprised if it hit levels of 7900 too in quick succession. On higher side it will again in the grip of bulls if it manages to stay above 8111.

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Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty September future should has defined a support at 8100 levels. In a clear way it is a band of support from 8100 to 8070 levels. A break below 8070 will give concern to bulls. So far, it is way higher than those as every dip get bought. Just a 50 points cut in one trading session is not enough. 50 points more sell off as follow up will open door for bears. It is not impossible but not easy too.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is a bounce from 1980 to come at 1995. I still have reasons to be bearish on S&P. This bounce may have come to form a H&S pattern with n-line to form at 1980. So far, this is acceptable. I need to be patient as this is still at striking 1% away from all-time high. Charts are saying that it has top at 2011 and it will get good confirmation if stays below 1990. From past 14 trading sessions it is at same levels of 1990.