06 August 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty hourly chart is giving ‘ending diagonal pattern’. It may not find it easier to move above 7800 levels. A fall should come from near to 7800 levels. A brutal sell off coming!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 06 August 2014: -

On 05 August 2014, FII Bought INR 52.85 crs and DII Bought INR 62.22 crs

I have not acted on yesterday’s rise which was very sharp although I was expecting this coming. Hourly chart enclosed is explaining this based on Elliott wave count. I have traded short for good gain and now also I will wait for market to enter in the zone of 7800 to add my shorts again.

I may be reading it wrong but this looks like ‘ending diagonal pattern. If I am right then we may see a fresh massive dip which may come from 7800 or nearer levels. It will define wave count in a good way if it slips from 7800 or just earlier. I draw 23.60% retrenchment to define 7640 support as it was retrenchment of preceding ‘c’ wave. So far so good.

For today’s session, I am not expecting any great hangover of US market selloff. I am not betting on 7800 but hoping for something near to that. My key point is that market may add weakness before 7800 levels. If this happens then just unwind your long and go on side line at least. We saw massive buying on real estate stocks yesterday. Just two sectors looks good for the day, one is real estate stocks and other is metal stocks.

I will update about supports in my intraday updates. I will get better idea of sell-off during hour itself. If tops are coming in the range of 7800 levels then it is always better to control temptation.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August Future may open flat to soft negative. I am not interested in buying for rise. My key point is to add short on rise. I will happy to see it rising for nearly 40-50 points more. 7840-7850 will not be easy to cross in anyway. A sell off from high will be brutal this rime. One may not get easy exit opportunity.

S&P 500 (USA) – I have already said for this fall but never expected to come in very next day after recovery. Now, my crucial 1910 is in striking distance. I have meaning to hold short which I have added from 1980. Once it break below 1910 then most bulls will give up and this can add panic sell off. I am repeating again. I am expecting levels of 1800 or nearer for August month. Technical resistance will be at 1925+ levels.