01 April 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: NIFTY is likely to come in the range of 6725 to 6750 levels. All eyes are on upcoming RBI policy now. Next move depends on the outcome on RBI policy. Technical support is at 6640.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 01 April 2014: -

On 31 March 2014, FII Bought INR 942.86 crs and DII Sold INR 611.22 crs

Time has come for first monetary policy review for this financial year. Market has no great expectation of positive surprises. We need to follow words coming from RBI about ‘growth’ and ‘inflation’ forecast for this financial year. Market will take trading direction based on outcome.

Before beginning a technical view point I like to inform that India VIX came at 21.6225 now. It has gained over 16% yesterday. It is also going up with NIFTY. I am very sure that if fall comes in Nifty then it will come with fall in VIX too. Perhaps, high VIX is due to the result that traders are expecting more volatility in coming days.

There is nothing in technical view point which can suggest any alarm except one. That one factor is that it is highly overbought. It has gained over 700 points in past 25 – 30 trading sessions. In general, market needs to correct about one-third of this gain. It is not a compulsion to come but it should come for the good of this Bull Run.

Market men are keeping their eye on RBI policy but remember that we are close to earning season too. I feel that 6750 will be levels of tougher resistance. It is true that Nifty surpass nearly 300 points after hitting new all-time high for once. As long as Nifty is above 6640 we cannot find any pullback. Let us see what comes today.

“Will this market ever fall?” Market will fall on the day when least number of people would expect about it.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty April future – SGX NIFTY is showing that it can open near 6770 levels just like yesterday. I suggest not acting till RBI policy comes. You cannot get any good movement before that. It is not easily predictable for next move. It is better to ignore this market on higher side due to over stretch risk. As long as it is above 6700-6680 there cannot be any signal for profit taking. It means it can recover from lows as long as it holds 6700-6680 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – It came under striking distance for 1884 again. If it stops before 1884 this time too then it will develop very odd pattern of indecision. It is often called as “W” pattern. We have two low at 1840 and two tops near 1884. This needs to be final. If not then it will be beyond the scope of technical analysis to predict for the upcoming direction. I suggest not participating at these levels. it is inviting trap.