31 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Another new all-time high will come today. NIFTY is likely to come in the range of 6725 to 6750 levels. All eyes are on upcoming RBI policy now. Expect intraday profit taking.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 March 2014: -

On 28 March 2014, FII Bought INR 1362.87 crs and DII Sold INR 208.34 crs

It has added 200 points more in the last week of trades and it has not given any sign of pullback yet. All eyes are going for upcoming RBI policy. Indian rupee come at the levels of 60 against USD and it came after many months.  

Global market is also running on good mood on Monday morning. So it is looking very obvious to see another new all-time high in Indian market today also. Banking stocks has added further gain with strong momentum which can continue before RBI policy. FII has picked banking stocks very aggressively.

Banking stocks has given a better participation in recent run up. Problem comes as most traders were shy on banking stocks after July-August 2013 fall. On other hand VIX hit 19 levels also. It is heavily over bought and fear index VIX is at alarming levels. Last time when VIX was at 19, Nifty was eve below 6100 levels. I cannot find correlation between NIFTY and VIX anymore. How can one say that people are buying stocks with fear?  

“Will this market ever fall?” Market will fall on the day when least number of people would expect about it. I strongly suggest that it is better to left out from this kind of rally than to participate. Stay away from any fresh investment. Minimum 300 points dip on Nifty will come in the name of ‘technical correction’ which can easily eat bulls’ money. It is coming now or today? This is not a compulsion. This correction will come once top get defined. So far, market is hunting higher to make a ‘tempting top’. Today is 13^th trading session after hitting 6432. Remember, what bull market build in a month can be taken out just in a week if bear market comes.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – SGX NIFTY is showing that it can open near 6770 levels. It is too fast and too furious. It is reminding me the days of December 2007 where Index was running on euphoric mode. I need to be clear that it does not make sense to short for intraday when market is positive. So as long as it holds 6730-6740 then just sit on sideline. Can you buy at 6770? This is also not making sense. I will prefer to trade beyond indices. First sign of top will come when mid cap and small cap indices shows negative close.

S&P 500 (USA) – The swing of 1840 to 1880 continues. It is in same range for fifth week in a row. Equally today is the last trading day of this financial year. Technical study remains same. As long as it is above 1840 it is making sense to expect rise. Confusion comes as it has consolidated for too long period. I can say that an outcome makes meaning to trade either above 1884 or below 1840 levels. When will I come? I have no idea. Let us see when will it come and which direction it choose.