28 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We are getting newer all-time after each few days. Next technical resistance may emerge near 6700 only. Momentum remains intact as long as it is above 6580.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 March 2014: -

On 27 March 2014, FII Bought INR 2191.93 crs and DII Sold INR 591.83 crs

We got another newer life time high on derivative expiry day. There was some contribution from short covering too which was very obvious. It was said that as long as it holds 6550, we can expect this rise to continue. I am revising this threshold as it is highly over-stretched. Now, new threshold is at 6580. It is also a bit far from 6640.

When global market was higher Indian market was down last year. Now, when global markets are turning soft Indian market is hitting newer high every day. It makes jitter to understand money flow which is a key behind this rally since 5933 on Nifty. It is 700 points straight rally on Nifty so far.

Banking stocks has given a better participation in recent run up. Problem comes as most traders were shy on banking stocks after July-August 2013 fall. On other hand we are getting newer high when VIX is above 18. It hits 18.725 yesterday which are beyond any great logic. In normal conditions, VIX should run below 15 for a bullish market which is hitting new all-time high.

“Will this market ever fall?” Market will fall on the day when least number of people would expect about it. I strongly suggest that it is better to left out from this kind of rally than to participate. Stay away from any fresh investment. Minimum 300 points dip on Nifty will come in the name of ‘technical correction’ which can easily eat bulls’ money. It is coming now or today? This is not a compulsion. This correction will come once top get defined. So far, market is hunting higher to make a ‘tempting top’.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – We should see an optimistic opening. Technical resistance will emerge above 6720. It is looking like to open near 6720. Cross above will make fewer attempts towards 6750 also which will be tougher to trade. Technical support will be in the zone of 6660 to 6650. It will not make easy top as of now. Time consolidation does not mean for price correction. If market turns choppy near higher levels or positive then it may be tempting for long but avoid such odd moves.

S&P 500 (USA) – It came on just testing distance for 1840 but missed. Well, now bitter truth is that it is coming near 1840 too many times. A support which has tested too many times has higher chance for breaking. Once it breaks 1840 then we will a window opening for almost 100 points slide. Even minimum target will come near 1800 area. Challenging aspect remains a live as long as it is above 1840. So, let us see today. I am anticipating this break to come today. Do not focus on reasons.