27 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We have derivative expiry today. Valid resistance is at 6628. Momentum continues as long as it holds 6550. If global cues dominate then we will see a lower close on expiry day.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 March 2014: -

On 26 March 2014, FII Bought INR 1004.52 crs and DII Sold INR 356.11 crs

We are finally on derivative expiry day. This series will remember for a new all-time high. Practically, there is no price correction in this series although we saw some time correction in the mid of series. We have no previous data which can give us idea about how series should expiry. What it looks is that it will be wild and volatile.

I feel that market has reached to its most expect target of 6625. I still cannot say that we have signal as threat but it is highly stretched market. Normally, people should try to take their profit and this can drag the price. Is it really going to happen? This is something which is beyond the scope of speculation.

I am repeating which I said yesterday. As long as Nifty is above 6550, it should favour bulls. This is well 50 points below the current Nifty value. Resistance will be at 6628. It means that Nifty has a wild range to swing. VIX is crossing 18 again.

“Will this market ever fall?” Market will fall on the day when least number of people would expect about it. 

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Strategy for Nifty March future – Opening is likely to be flat. If global cues dominate then we can see levels on down side. A possible small short trade may emerge if it breaks 6585. Although, support may emerge at 6560 level. Decisive break below 6560 will make some sell signal.  Technical resistance will be in the range of 6640 to 6650.

S&P 500 (USA) – So, this swing continues and S&P came near to 1850 again. For better price confirmation we should wait for the break of 1840 as break down. Something is happening in US market which is giving edge to bear to enter in the market. Perhaps 61^st month of rally will not be easy. I always suggest focusing on first follow up day which is today. So, if it breaks 1840 today then we may have big opening for bears.  What I like to say is this – “If it breaks and sustain below 1840 then we have a chance to see a slide towards 1740”.