24 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Decisive support is at 6480 on closing basis. We are close to 150 points of sharp move but direction is still unknown. It must break this range by early this week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 March 2014: -

On 22 March 2014, FII Bought INR 14.79 crs and DII Sold INR 8.42 crs

Technical analysis says that rally should be innocent until proven guilty. So far, this rally is still innocent.

Now we are in derivative expiry week for March month contract. Nifty has hardly done anything in past week except saving 6480-6470 support levels. It same near to this range almost every single day. this week is going to be crucial as I feel that we will see ‘storm after recent choppy moves’.

It has almost formed a diamond shape on daily chart. This conclude that we are either going to see a sharp up side of 150 points or a sharp sell off 150 points. I am taking extreme ends. One end is at 6575 and other end is at 6430.

Technical indicators like MACD are also giving sign of tiredness at these levels. I have plotted 10 days moving average on the given chart. This is a ‘short term moving average’. As Nifty is near to 10 DMA so we need to focus on price action for decision mode. It is showing that it can break 6480 sooner this week itself.

For today’s session, expect opening near 6510-6520 and then long choppy hours before another sell off in late hours. A billion dollar question is, “When will it close below 6480?”

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Strategy for Nifty March future – Flip flow continues. We can expect this choppy run to expand little more for today also. There are signs that it will break 6490 sooner but timing is still clueless. We should leave this on time itself. Whenever this happens, we can expect big fall. Till that time Nifty is not going to give us trades.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said that I feel that it is going to take few more swing in the range of 1850 to 1884. We saw a new all-time high near 1884 on Friday but it gave up almost 20 points from day’s high. As long as it holds levels of 1840-1830, we can hope for this kind of swing to continue. I cannot deny the possibility of further rally but only if it crosses and close above 1884 successfully. There is nothing that I can name as sign of warning except one. That one face is that this rally is now 60 months older.