21 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It maybe another useless first half. Decisive support is at 6480 on closing basis. We are close to 150 points of sharp move but direction is still unknown.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 March 2014: -

On 20 March 2014, FII Bought INR 722.02 crs and DII Sold INR 563.29 crs

Now we can experience an expiry heat all over. Nifty has broken 6480 yesterday but still it has manages to close just above this level. Take a note that NIFTY’s yesterday low was exactly at 9 days exponential moving average.

It has almost formed a diamond shape on daily chart. This conclude that we are either going to see a sharp up side of 150 points or a sharp sell off 150 points. I am taking extreme ends. One end is at 6575 and other end is at 6430.

Yesterday’s last hour trades were suggesting for lower break. Technical indicators like MACD are also giving sign of tiredness at these levels. Well, as of this morning we saw rebound on US market. This may lead us towards some higher opening. Even if it comes 20 points then also it will throw us on indecisive ranges.

For today’s session, expect opening near 6510 and then long choppy hours before another sell off in late hours. A billion dollar question is, “When will it close below 6480?”

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Strategy for Nifty March future – No global indices has given this kind of choppy pattern after making a new all-time high. Take a note. Do not opt to trade intraday except last hours. Choppy days can give you both buy and sell signals in quicker intervals. I will just prefer to trade in last 60 minutes or if it can break yesterday’s low of 6489.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has respected 1850 support against all odds. It is just 12-13 points away from its all-time high. It is looking more bullish than bearish. As long as it holds 1850, it can try to break 1884 on higher side. Then, it can finally take a move towards 1900 levels. Still, I feel that it is going to take few more swing in the range of 1850 to 1884. We may feel reservations on charts as many momentum indicators are missing those fresh signs of strength.  Give a bias to bulls this time.