19 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect 6565-6575 as still trading resistance, crossover can give 6600-6625. Unless it closes below 6480, we cannot get decisive profit taking. Caution coming from VIX too.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 March 2014: -

On 18 March 2014, FII Bought INR 1011.95 crs and DII Sold INR 201.97 crs

Higher levels are still offering resistance on NIFTY. Closing was 60 points off the high and 20 points off the low. It is important to note that closing came below the opening quotes. All this came, even after massive buying by FIIs. Technical charts are still showing sluggish move for the days to come.

India VIX was high by 4% again yesterday. It is showing a pattern which suggests that it is shaping for sharp rise in coming days which can cause for price fall on blue chip indices. I am still considering 6480 as decisive support. We can get some decisive profit taking only if it manages to close below 6480 for two days in a row.  

Above condition still looks tougher but market tend to satisfy few times in recent days. Momentum indicators, like MACD is showing for tiredness on chart. Will this tiredness convert to profit taking? In order to say that also we need trades below 6480. Many aspects are giving 6480 as decisive support. So, we need to wait for the break below 6480 to conclude for further course of action.

On higher side 6565 to 6575 will be decisive hurdle. Although charts are still suggesting that 6625 may also be within reach if it manages to sustain well above 6565-6575 ranges.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – Opening is going to be stable and positive. It may be near to 6575 levels as hinted by SGX Nifty. We will see immediate resistance coming above 6600 levels. I am again expecting day like yesterday where it can open higher, move higher than profit taking to hit at higher zone. In the down side, it will have support at 6520-6510 levels. If it breaks 6510 then only we can think about decisive profit taking to hit. Keep your eye on India VIX. It can see some decisive move on higher side.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P 500 continues with bounce and coming closer to previous all-time high again. It is just 10-12 points away. It is showing power of bulls. It is on another striking distance. As long as it is above 1854, bulls will control the market. First achievable target can be at 1883-1884. Crossover can generate target above 1900. Charts are giving obvious caution with negative divergence on MACD.  US indices has violated many divergence in past but one such final divergence will work on one day. Which one can be the last? It is still beyond the scope of speculation.