12 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Distribution pattern is emerging near top and rally will see the end sooner. Expect good pullback if it breaks 6480.

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For 12 March 2014: -

On 11 March 2014, FII Bought INR 1471.23 crs and DII Sold INR 1331.73 crs

It was a waste day yesterday on Nifty. I have quoted from past two days that 6560 to 6600 will be a tougher resistance. It has formed two tops in two days which comes at 6562. It is confirming that 6560+ levels has good value as resistance and it deserve respect now.

Index was almost making worse moves for trading while stocks are still giving trades which are clearer. Like, yesterday we opted short on Tata Steel. It may be the time to search stock specific trades. As long as Nifty holds 6480, we can see odd sudden rise in Nifty. Can I say that we can see pullback today? I feel that time has come. It can break 6480 any day and any time.

I still suggest waiting for trades to settle below 6480 then only we can see a hope for a move towards 6420 levels. India is not the market which is successfully generating euphoria of all-time high. It is more looking like a bulls’ trap. Indian ADR were down on an average 1% in US market last night.  

So for the day, range can be 6565 to 6480 before anything decisive. Keep close on VIX also. If it moved above 18 then panic must come. NIFTY is at all-time high and VIX is running at 17.50+. It is itself showing lack of confidence in the market. a market which went up on lack of majority confidence, are bound to come lower.

Two days back, I said for a ‘massive sell off’ coming for Nikkei when it was at add 15150 levels. I can see ‘breakdown’ pattern right now in morning hours. I would not surprise if this close with loss of 500-600 points by today itself.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – I am feeling for a gap down today and it can be bear gap down. If it can successfully overlap the gap down then it can be another waste day for Nifty. If it breaks 6520-6510 levels then it can open huge scope of pullback. Break below 6510 can give us levels like 6450-6420. Sooner or later, it should come.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was very near to its all-time high again on last night but slipped. It closed nearly 16 points away from crucial 1884 levels. Charts are saying to have a hope as long as 1850 holds. Equally, some momentum indicators are giving sign of tiredness. So, will it break 1850? If not then also at least it will go near to test 1850. In past few days, I refused to buy even after strong buy signals. When small cap rally, then it might be a hint for ‘top formation’. It looks like this theory may work this time too.