05 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Ukraine crisis eased and now next crucial and important resistance will be only at 6360 level. A possible short term top will emerge sooner now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 05 March 2014: -

On 04 March 2014, FII Bought INR 185.61 crs and DII Sold INR 344.50 crs

Finally, Putin stunt ended and globe goes on rally. This rally comes near almost at all time high or at 52 week’s high for every single index of the world. S&P 500 hit another life time high at 1876. It looks like Russian politician created unnecessary tension with some purpose.

Nifty closed just near to 6300. In my view, 6360 is going to be next challenging level and most challenging level. In past four months it is going to be fifth time that Nifty will go above 6300 level. It has failed every single time to sustain above this. Broader charts suggest that Indian market is still under phase of consolidation. It is moving from 6000 to 6350 levels.

It is looking like market will try to take another higher gap of 30 points which is going to throw traders at back seat. Do not prefer to deal long near 6360 resistance levels. Let us see how global market shapes up from here. We may see a pop up top which comes after Ukraine relief. For many indices RSI has negative divergence and near 70 levels. At least for Indian market weekly volume is already dropping from past more than a month.

I like to see what will come to stop global rally now. Whatever will come will be big.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – It has moved higher and come near 6340 levels. It may open near 6360 as indicated by SGX Nifty. I will not be surprised if it gives up till pre-opening trades. It is not going to easy to conclude and so I will try to find intraday indication. I came out from my shorts yesterday and planning to add again if it shows weakness again. I will not short a choppy market. what we want is a topping market to trade now. If not then we should plan to trade long once Nifty goes above 6360.

S&P 500 (USA) – At one time when it was looking like for a massive down move, things got saved. Ukraine crisis eased and bulls have shown their power. It is nearly 2% rally from the recent low of 1834. In this process it has created a gap from 1857 to 1865. This gap is going to fill sooner and hence we might be near to another short term top which fall in the zone of 1875-1880. There were a time when US market used to give a break out and massive rally of 8-10%. Those days has passed. As of now, if it gets follow up then it can try to be positive else a down day is coming. Maximum upside target can be 1888.

Regards,             

Praveen Kumar