04 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Asian market goes on pause after Ukraine crisis. Technical support for Nifty is only at 6183-6170. Be cautious as this sell can intensify if breaking lower!!!

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For 04 March 2014: -

On 03 March 2014, FII Bought INR 198.53 crs and DII Sold INR 1566.31 crs

So far, there is no soft solution for Ukraine crisis. It is looking like global market is paying heavy price of one man’s ambition and rigidity. I need to accept that Indian market has shown great resilience in odd situation with massive buying support from domestic institutional investors.

Asian market is not pause after yesterday’s sell off. I cannot say about the crisis over Ukraine. It is still exploding situation. It has geo political importance. We need to thank to the optimism as contingency effect has not spread after 10% sell off in Russian market.

From my experience I can say that in panic mode, only moving average support works. So, 50 DMA is at 6183, 100 DMA is at 6170 and 200 DMA is at 5987. It is likely to get some support at 6183 to 6170 zone.

If panic continues with war converting to reality then be prepare to see 6000 levels by this week.

Charts are not changing shapes so far unless it closes below 6183-6170 support band. I am expecting a flat opening. Thereafter market will take direction from news flow. Technical sell off will begin if it breaks 6170 which is looking little too far but not impossible.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – There is no point to say that look on SGX Nifty right now as it can also fluctuate with news flow. It is looking like 6295 will act as stiff resistance for short term. Intraday support is at 6220. If it breaks 6220 then it may test levels near 6200-6190 levels. Trading resistance will emerge at 6265 levels. I do not think that higher levels can be safer to trade.

S&P 500 (USA) – It may avoid panic sell off as long as closing above 1840. Meanwhile we got a threshold now. If it break’s yesterday’s low of 1834 then it will invite selling. Global situation is still alarming. It can take a swing any time depending on news flow. Technical set up on charts are not as bad so far as news flow. Hopefully situation will clear by tonight or in two three days’ time. One close below 1834 will cause further sell off and that will be technical in nature.

Regards,             

Praveen Kumar