28 February 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 6262 to 6285 levels are also looking achievable. Higher levels demands extreme caution. We are close to the short term top but still not on exact top.

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For 28 February 2014: -

On 26 February 2014, FII Bought INR 511.15 crs and DII Sold INR 251.91 crs

Its US indices which have refused to give up from current levels while EU indices have given signs of pause. It is saving Indian indices. In fact it moved higher against all technical odds. Even in doubt it is coming near 6300 levels. I am expecting gap up after this holiday. It is looking to surpass 6262 resistance marks in gap up and may achieve 6285 in opening minutes. This kind of gap up normally eats all possible intraday opportunity.

I cannot say that there can be any good strategy on very first day of this month series. Once it opens with a gap then goes on silent mode. It is not possible to long either without correction. Signal to shorts are also not coming at higher levels too. History suggests that Nifty always truncate at 6300 levels. Nifty is just her and there at 6200 levels since mid-September 2014 itself.

Today it is going to be 18^th session from the low of 5933. I expect a top to form again in few days of time. This time traders should prefer to exit their investment portfolio too. It is saving as long as global market supports. Only banking and technology stocks are looking to move higher with some gains. Mid cap and small cap indices are not as strong as nifty.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – Closing above 6270 is generating for further up move for target near 6310 but those may come as gap up. There will not be much to trade higher after gap up. If it falls from high then only we can have trades. 6310 levels will act as tough resistance. Will it give me signal to short? If not then I will not trade.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It has in the band of 20 points from 1840 to 1860. Break on any side will cause nearly 2% moves in same direction. It means that if it breaks 1840 then we can hope to get 1800. If it breaks higher above 1860 then we may see 1888-1900 levels. I have not seen real selling pressure the way I was expecting. I suggest waiting for decisive move. It is looking like market can flush bears again at all-time high before giving correction. It is really irritating move we have lesser choice.

Regards,             

Praveen Kumar