19 February 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Now 6145 is next threshold level to buy for a move towards 6200. If it fails at 6145 then it can begin correction anytime. Today is make or break day.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 19 February 2014: -

On 18 February 2014, FII Bought INR 292.23 crs and DII Sold INR 154.83 crs

Test of 6100-6105 was looking obvious but a move towards 50% retrenchment is surprising. It came at 6142 and this may have invited many temptations for long side. Mid-point of fall from 6356 to 5933 is at 6145.

It gave up some gain in last 30 minutes of trades but this does not reflect anything. Now for today the battle begins for 6145 from bulls’ side and 6100 for bear side. It is not going to be easy for anyone now. I am also expecting that global market should undergo a correction after recent rise.

It is also looking that if Nifty manages to move above 6145 then we can expect a move towards 6195-6200 levels. It was banking stocks which have finally participated in rise. Now, we should see if banks will get follow up of buying. If this happens then only we can expect the cross of 6145.

For today’s trading, once again be cautious at higher levels and do not buy unless it goes above 6145. Rest, we can able to decide only during market hours.  

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Strategy for Nifty February future – Based on daily charts, Nifty future has strength and looking like some steam has left. Well, hourly chart does not have same view. We should not opt buying unless it goes above 6160 levels. If we get follow up buying in bank nifty then only we can expect higher crossover to come. We can expect trading support at 6115-6100 levels. If it breaks 6100 then only it can move on concerning note. S&P 500 (USA) – As expected it came above 1840 but on surprising side it has not shown any sign of weakness yet. Will bulls surprise market again? May be, I cannot deny. In US market bulls are in full command from past more than year. I still like to focus on 1850 to 1854 as most crucial resistance. If it manages to surpass above 1850-1854 then one can expect a run for 1888-1900 levels. In that case correction will be denied for longer. In the downside, break point is at 1828, i.e. little too far. I still like to issue the warning for today-tomorrow and day after tomorrow unless S&P goes above 1854 successfully.

Regards,             

Praveen Kumar