18 February 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Analysis remains same. Nifty has stiff resistance at 6100-6105 zone. Be cautious at higher levels. It will be safe to buy only above 6105.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 February 2014: -

On 17 February 2014, FII Bought INR 522.82 crs and DII Sold INR 245.17 crs

Nifty remains near 6075 and practically never stand well above this level. Still, nothing bad on trading chart yet. A pause always does not mean for top. I can still emphasize that moving ahead 6100-6105 will be extremely tougher resistance. Nifty took a turn from this resistance for multiple times. If things will remains like this then we may see tougher to cross.  

It will be better and safer to play long once it takes out this resistance mark. Private sector banks have seen improvement while PSU banks are still not showing any good sign of revival. I can conclude that PSU banks and Reliance is still trading on concerning note. This makes me skeptical towards buying. I am not bearish yet but I will not try to buy either except momentum.

Technical charts are still suggesting that if Nifty stands tall above 6075 then it can try to come near 6100-6105 marks for once. It is still not going to be easy as writing an article.

My strong word of caution is coming from US market. Does not what futures are showing. S&P 500 is coming towards 1850-1854 resistance marks and I can expect a violent reaction. If reaction comes to surpass 1854 then only we can think about next round of money coming to equity. This is going to be big if it fails to cross 1850-1854.

For today’s trading, cautions are advised at higher levels. 6100-6105 is still looking tougher to cross. Good trading support can be expected only near 6030 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty February future – I have off loaded my long yesterday only. Now, I like to see reactions in the zone of 6115-6126 zone. Simple way is, from higher levels nothing is safer unless it go above 6126. Any failure at top will again result the fall. Note that it is just100 points band on Nifty to trade. There is no sign of decisive break on any side yet. Let us see what can be done. It is going to open flat.

S&P 500 (USA) – When it was looking like bulls were changing their mind, they took charge again. It is another quicker 100 points rally on S&P. Now it is just 11-12 points away from technical resistance of 1850 and this is life time high too. In previous rising wave I had quoted 1854 as technical resistance when it was near to 1850. I like to quote 1854 again for this time. If it crosses 1854 then it can raise the possibility for 1888 levels. Logically, we can expect good trading support at 50 DMA only which is at 1810. My view is – Do not add fresh long near 1850. Book your profit on long deals and wait for the market reaction at 1850-1854. Think to buy above 1854.

Regards,             

Praveen Kumar