14 February 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect better opening backed by strong global cues. Question is can this gap up again sold? If yes then 5930 must be the levels to talk. Resistance – 6050.

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For 14 February 2014: -

On 13 February 2014, FII Bought INR 399.40 crs and DII Sold INR 292.40 crs

Yesterday, it hit the high at 6094.40 and then crashed to hit a low at 5991.10 levels. This has ended the patterns of small trading ranges. I was suspecting this since opening minutes itself. It has again defined 6100 as decisive resistance for Nifty.

Now, we are going to get most important result today. More than charts and cues, it will be SBIN’s result which has bigger value. Poor result is expected and discounted. Can it be poorer than expected? If yes, then we will see washing out on banks.

Another important development for the day is that US market moved higher over 0.50%. Take this as 1% rise as when we closed futures were down by nearly 0.50%. Very obviously, it is going to drive us for some higher opening. We have already seen many stronger opening got sold many times this week.  

I am again expecting same. It will open higher and then resistance will emerge at 6030 to 6050 levels. If this sell off gets follow up then Nifty can break 5930 levels too very soon. Global cues are better but can it give us any meaningful support? May be not.

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Strategy for Nifty February future – SGX NIFTY is showing me 6024 levels. This must have added effect of 1% comparable rise in US market for us. This level might not sustain even till 9 am on SGX. Technical charts are saying for resistance @ 6030 to 6050 on Nifty February month future. Can it again slip in second half? If yes then we can see panic selling now. All depends on SBIN’s Result. Technical support is at 5980 and then only at 5930.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It took another sharp intraday rebound since opening. This kind of days has defined bulls at USA. Well, I am still retaining my view that US indices are about to see the end of this rally or recovery. Few closes below 1609, i.e. 50 DMA will give what I am planning for. At 1630, I can say that only technical resistance will emerge at 1850, rest all will be unexpected. I must say that one should avoid long and prefer to sit blank.

Regards,