07 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: FII buying is slowing down and Indian market is underperforming. It is time for ‘not to add long’ at least. Intraday support – 6180, break will give panic sell off!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 November 2013: -

On 06 November 2013, FII Bought INR 271.70 crs and DII Sold INR 545.20 crs

I always believe that FIIs are used to buy top. They bought heavily near 6200 and now with it is coming down they are slowing their momentum. One must note that all this is happening when Dow Jones hits another life time high yesterday. I am concerned as Indian market has again started a phase of underperformance.

We are just hanging on n-line of inverse H&S pattern. It has broken 6240 which will act as tough resistance now. We can give many trading supports like 6180 as next. Still I feel that one should be cautious and must avoid trading long. It require fresh wave of strength to surpass its previous all-time high.

I was concerned on VIX front. I said this earlier too that 18 is a decisive levels for VIX. It is 50-50 possibility for next move. Either we will see 23 or we will see 14. Now, it gave rise above 19 and showing for more strength although it will fall later. Cross over of 21 on VIX will surely give concern for bulls on index.

Technical support for the day is at 6180. On higher side major technical resistance will be at 6240 to 6260.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat. As it has broken 6280 then we have reasons to expect a move towards 6215 levels. If it breaks 6215 by today only then we can see panic selling. On higher side 6300 will act as trading resistance. Possibility of new life time high is out of talk now. I am repeating that one has to be scared of a phase of underperformance in Indian. It has history of turning brutal. Global cues have lesser importance.

S&P 500 (USA) – It stopped before 1776 but DJIA advanced to make a new life time high. I have said long back that if S&P is not giving top at 1730 then we have high chance of seeing top near 1780-1800. Now, at this kind of higher end one must avoid long. Wait for opportunity to trade on short side now. Surely, this is highly risky to short US market at top. I feel that it is a limited risk if one place small stop loss.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar