03 October 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: After fall got arrested at 5700, we should now focus on 5840 levels which is 200 DMA. So far, 5840 will act as stiff trading resistance.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 October 2013: -

On 01 October 2013, FII Sold INR 106.96 crs and DII Bought INR 125.35 crs

I said on Tuesday that fall should arrest at 5700. We got low near 5700 on dot and then we saw a bounce. So far, this is only a bounce. Unless it stands above 200 DMA, I cannot say that it is going to give confidence. It has developed an H&S pattern which is generating target of 5500 levels. Well, I must add that it has developed but not yet give a breakdown as Nifty is hovering near 5800 only. I can say that break of 5700 will create panic. Band of 5700 to 5800 will not give any clear trend in market. Hence, I am saying that bulls can be confident only if it manages to close above 5840 for once.

I am not worried about technical shape up as it is just a reflection of event shaping up. US situation is turning critical now. I can still say that sell off is not as hard as it could be. So, stock market has not reacted much. Still, I need to add that this can be ‘political disaster’ if continues longer. They must find their solution in a day or two at the max. If they fails then above mentioned H&S pattern may be on play. Now, this is scaring me.

Technical charts are still advocating me that rise will extend move in the zone of 5800 to 5840. It needs to move beyond 200 DMA which is at 5840 now. Technical support is only at 5700 marks. I said earlier that we need at least ‘one positive close’ to conclude that fall got a pause. We got that condition. Now to extend higher we need follow up buying. It is likely to get. Let us see.

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Strategy for Nifty October future – Nifty future may move in wild way. Right now, SGX Nifty is showing for better opening near 5860 levels. This may give us next technical resistance at 5900 levels. Which may be in parallel to 5840 levels on Nifty spot. We can expect trading support at 5800 on Nifty October month future. One must watch development in US indices futures to take cues.

S&P 500 – We got bounce from 1675 but it is still troubling. One has to accept that sell off is not as hard as market were feared. I cannot advise shorting as long as 1675-1670 holds. I still believe that if deadlock continues in US, it will not be good for any single country. It is unnecessary political chaos which is coming on bad times. Criticize US politician who are behaving like Indian politician. Technical charts have not value. Below 1670, it is still. On higher side, above 1702, bulls will get confidence back.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar