04 September 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Only meaningful support is at 5250. Panic is the part of weak sentiment. On higher side, even trades above 5400 may fail to restore confidence.
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read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this
article completely.
For 04
September 2013: -
On 03
September 2013, FII Sold INR 716.16 crs and DII Bought INR 596.43 crs
I was
expecting fifth day reversal but not as brutal as it came. It seems that market
was waiting for some negative to react. S&P threaten for downgrading India
but it is not coming sooner. It is showing the weak confidence of buyer that
Nifty slipped nearly 4% so easily.
It is not
a good set up on technical charts. We can expect technical support near 5250
again. Worse is that index failed to reflect true pictures. Banking and
financial stocks are still weak while metal and auto stocks may show relative
strength. It must be noted that metal and technology stocks has shown much better
performance than index.
As long as
Nifty is below 50 DMA, we cannot be confident for the end of pain. 50 DMA came
at 5706 now. Above all, it is not easy to break ‘death crossover’. So far,
there is no sign of strength but this fall will arrest near 5250 only. On higher
side, confidence may generate only above 5400. It cannot be easy to predict ‘panic
bottom’.
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again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during
market hours.
Strategy
for Nifty September future – SGX Nifty is trading
with gain of 18 points but that does not mean anything after such a brutal sell
off. Note that only meaningful technical support can be only at 5250 which are
still 80-90 points away. I am assuming that Nifty September future is trying to
make ‘invesrse H&S’ pattern on hourly chart. Based on this development I was
expecting fifth day of correction but it came beyond my expected limits.
S&P
500
– As indicated, it came above 1650 levels but never closer towards1660. Then, we
saw a dip. 1% gap up was bulls trap. A break below 1624 will lead technical
indicators towards 1600 levels. Usually September month has bad history for US
market. Let us consider 1624 as make or break levels. Near to 1624 levels, I
suggest for waiting for decisive break below 1624. Then, one can add shorts.
I still
believe that US will not attack Seria. It does not matter how much threat is
being issued by President.
Regards,
Praveen
Kumar
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