23 July 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I still hope for 6111-6133 levels before expiry. Some revival may come in banking stocks although it may be too dull.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 July 2013: -

On 22 July 2013, FII Sold INR 406.02 crs and DII Bought INR 299.85 crs

One day it looks that FII are showing some interest in Indian market and very next day hopes fed away. This is the story of past 500 points of rises on Nifty. I can conclude that majority of selling goes in banking and metal stocks. Now, there are many bad earning hitting on street. All those bad IIP figures were giving this hint. LT comes with miserable set of numbers yesterday. This is perhaps the worse corporate earning in past many years.

It is the failure of policy makers who were active on papers but not on ground. When they come on ground they were just touching dirt. Any economy has to pay for this kind of inactiveness. Market has no hope from upcoming RBI’s monetary policy but it will look with some hope. Most of my study remains same before derivative expiry.

Technical charts are still suggesting for higher move and giving a hint for 6111 levels. Wave theory suggests that we are in the progression of wave ‘c’ which may finish in the zone of 6111 to 6133. There is a small concern that RSI is giving small negative divergence and it can be confirm if we start closing lower. So it is very important that Nifty need to get higher close. I am optimistic for higher closing. We are in derivative expiry week so I am expecting tremendous volatility.

Some short covering may come and those must govern banking stocks.

Strategy for Nifty July future – SGX JULY NIFTY is higher by 25 points. I am worried about market fundamental but I am not worried about market technical. It is still a buy. Technical charts are suggesting that it has some resistance at 6080. Cross above 6080 will drive this market higher on short covering. In short covering it may hit 6111-6133 levels.

S&P 500 – It is coming closer to 1700 marks. Yesterday it hit at 1698 levels. This hide and seek game may continue for today also. 1700 is a psychological resistance. It is looking to extend its gain once it starts trading above 1700 marks. Intermediate trading support will emerge at 1685-1680 levels. There is no great addition in technical studies. Expect more rise if stand above 1700. It is still a question if it can able to cross 1700 or not. So watch for this cross over.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar