10 June 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It will be another day for trades near 5930 levels with gap up. Study remains same – resistance @ 5980 and support @ 5860 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 June 2013: -

On 07 June 2013, FII bought INR 157.90 crs and DII bought INR 172.70 crs.

On Friday, Nifty hit a low at 5871 and manages to close just above those levels. It has again saved 5860 support levels. Now, it is looking to take a higher gap up opening due to rise in US market. So, we are again going to see trades near 5930 levels. One need to note that from past five trading sessions, we are just trading near 5930 levels only. It has added volatility in market due to swing in both directions. It was expected movement near n-line of H&S pattern. Market is not ready to give up easy fall.

US market moved higher on Friday night due to data support. It was strong and meaningful rebound after hitting support at 1600 on S&P 500. It has almost rebounded by 3%. Something will come out this week too to pull those indices down.

Technical charts are still suggesting for support at 5860 in spite of H&S pattern. From past four trading sessions Nifty is moving near its n-line only which is at 5930. It will break lower but it will take its own time.

Another major concern for Indian market is weak Indian rupee. Right now, 1 USD is costing us INR 57.07 which is way too high than a comfort. Now any break below 57.30 will push it further lower towards 58-59 levels.

Strategy for Nifty June future – SGX Nifty is 48 points higher but I do not think that it will open that strong. Worse part is that we are oscillating from 5980 to 5860. We are going to open at mid-point again. Friday’s high of 5989 is a meaningful resistance. In the down side we have support in the zone of 5875 to 5860 levels. There is nothing great to conclude as long we are staying in this range.

S&P 500 – I am keeping this line as it is. “I repeat that that 80% chances are that S&P 500 has made a top for the year 2013”.

I do not think that S&P can able to make a new high. We have seen fear easing for the rollover of QE. We have recent high at 1687 and low at 1598 and S&P has retraced 50% of the fall. I am not denying the further bounce before fall to resume. Key threshold in the down side will be at 1633 only. On higher side resistance will be at 1653 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar