10 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is side wise but still above the crucial support of 6024 – 6020 levels. Still a question – Will it correct?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 May 2013: -

On 09 May 2013, FII bought INR 662.88 crs and DII sold INR 476.69 crs.

If I look at FII Money flow then I can say that this rise is too small compared to other parts of the world. Well, right now Japanese market goes higher by 3% again due to dollar yen rally. US markets were almost flat to negative last night. I can say that global cues are still not showing for any big price correction. It seems that rally based on easy money flow will not end so easily.

Yesterday, Nifty took a pause with fall of 0.30%. It is important to note that mid cap index lost more than Nifty. It is a hint that broader market is under performing Nifty from past two trading sessions. This kind of formation comes before fall on Nifty from any major top.  

I cannot see any big sign for US market yet although it has given a negative close yesterday. Almost all global markets are heavily over bought and raising concerns over valuation too. I will not be in hurry to bet for big price correction but I am feeling that it is coming sooner.  

We need to note that Indian market has a history of big under performance in the year 2013 in terms of performance so any global correction will put bigger dent to Indian market. Note that FII has put real big money to save the fall in Indian market. This kind of money cannot continue for every time and every day.

Technically 6100 to 6120 is still a valid resistance and 6024-6020 is most valid support.  

Strategy for Nifty May future – I cannot conclude anything too big for bears unless it breaks 6024 to 6020 levels. It is holding those levels so far. Once it breaks 6020 then we can see quick fire fall of 60-80 points on Nifty. On higher side it has resistance at 6100-6110-6120 levels. Bulls are still having firm grip in the market but not on all stock price. I can say that short this market on weakness if comes. RSI is giving a sluggish sign which can convert to weakness any time. Bank Nifty may see a fall today.

S&P 500 – It hit another newer higher yesterday at 1635.20. Higher newer high is a daily routine. Well, it came off a lot from high in the last trading day. I will still say let it break 1616 marks first. My charts are telling to be ready for big hit if I get another red close. So, if I would be at USA today, I will load short in last hour if S&P 500 would go for negative close. My preferred range for short will be at break below 1616. It is coming? I am not very sure yet but there is another divergence indication.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar