07 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I am quoting for resistance at 5834 – 5858 then 5889. Nifty may start falling from anyone of these resistances. Violation of support at 5795 will give fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 March 2013: -

On 06 March 2013, FII bought INR 524.05 crs and DII sold INR 599.99 crs.

I have quoted for resistance at 5834 yesterday and it hit a high at 5828.70. I must say that it is looking very near and looking to cross easily but let it happen. Look at market reaction yesterday. It was not convincing at all on hourly chart. Even if Nifty tries to cross 5834 then also we will see resistance at 5858 and 5889. So, we have gradual resistance if market tries to extend its recovery.

Indian market is underperforming from past more than one month. No one knows that concrete reason for this under performance. Market dynamics suggest that it always takes longer time to come out of such phases.

I like to point out one more things. Many believe that only Indian market is sailing against US market. It is completely not true. There are many indices like Hang-Seng, Kospi which are also trading like Indian market. It is hard to believe but right financial world has divided in to two groups. On one hand we have developed countries and on other hand we have ‘rest of the world’. Money is finding ‘developed economy’ as safer and better bet. (I do not have great logic to support my view but I feel that this is the impact of fluctuating currency or say currency war).

Technical indicator like RSI came at 45.40, which is near to mid-point crisis. On other hand VIX closed at 13.40 which is showing a pattern which is suggesting that we can expect rise in VIX now. Yesterday’s lower was 12.90.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I said yesterday,” If market has to give for recovery then also it will not able to cross above 5853 levels.” I stick with my view as yesterday’s high was just at 5850 only. If it fails to cross 5850 then you can expect fresh wave of fall. It was only the rise in European market and US market future which was rising during our trading hours and saving fall. In the down side if it able to break 5808 then we can see big opening for bears and Nifty March future may crash towards 5760 levels by the end of the day.

S&P 500 – It has another high at 1545 levels. For intraday it took at low at 1538. It is still hard to say for any remarkable fall as we are not getting even single negative day. It is suggesting that US indices are getting lot to low support. If it is really true then just a break below 1538 can do some trading damage. I will not bet for rise. It should not cross 1552 and any break below 1538 will push indices back. I can say anything confidently at least one on negative close. Technical indicators are dead for S&P 500. Shall I buy? Noway.