05 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We hit another low yesterday. Charts are still not hinting for recovery but surely demanding. Expect a dull day today. Nifty needs to stand above 5740 to move for any recovery mode.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 05 March 2013: -

On 04 March 2013, FII sold INR 30.10 crs and DII bought INR 111.08 crs.

Indian market continues with fall and US market continues with rise. It seems that only Indian market is on fall while rest of the world market is still on rise.  If I take yesterday’s low of 5663.60 then it was full 448.20 points from its 52 weeks high.

I believe that Indian market should try to see pause now. I am still not very sure about the recovery for any big targets. We may see some recovery only because global market is still rising. Fall will resume its momentum again from higher levels in coming days.

Technical charts are showing that Nifty will have stiff resistance at 5740 and then at 5780. You can assume that 5670-5660 will act as strong support if downside comes. First indication is coming from RSI which may able to deliver some moderate buy signal.

On other hand I like to draw your attention towards VIX. It has closed at 13.67 while on 26 February it has a high at 17.60. It has a remarkable low on 9^th January which was at 12.57. Remember, lower VIX is giving you the top formation. Now, you can expect some consolidation which should bring VIX near towards 12.57 and then it will result another round of sell off.

Today’s trading will not be impressive after opening. You can expect just last 60 minutes of movement. There is no science behind it just a fact from recent past whenever market traded in choppy mode.

Strategy for Nifty March future – I have no great take from technical chart. It is still down but now it is demanding some recovery. It has closed at 5720 yesterday. You can levels of 5740 and then 5758 on higher side. If opening gap up comes then there will be nothing to deal. Final and remarkable resistance is expected only near 5800 marks. I am expecting a dull day but there is a warning. We may see late sell off from higher levels in last hour.  

S&P 500 – This chart turned out to be nightmare for bears. It is now inviting bear based rally which is running from 1485. Note that we have two top at 1531 and three top at 1526. Upcoming 5 points will be decisive. I fail to understand this development. Patience is the key now. I heard that legendary investor Mr. Buffet is still buying stocks. He scolds CEO for sitting with huge cash. He is right but it seems he is ignoring the impact of spending cut. Technical charts are again saying for support at 1510 i.e. 20 EMA.