04 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Technical charts are still hinting for fall and generating target towards 5548. As long as we are below 5780, we cannot say for any strength. It may misguide, do not buy.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 March 2013: -

On 01 March 2013, FII sold INR 626.89 crs and DII bought INR 45.85 crs.

Normally what I know is that budget speech can continue for 2-4 hours. What is happening this time? Budget speech still continues. This is non-sense. Saying something unnecessarily and then giving clarifications – it is making everyone more confused. Now, I heard that finance minister will betting for insurance bill and pension bill to boost reform. On other hand I heard that we can expect further fare hike from Indian railway.  

We got another hike in petrol price on weekend. You can expect some improvement if finance minister will able to deliver what he is saying. I must be very fair that technical charts are still not saying any word of improvement.

What I am sensing is that market can go for a pause before grinding lower again towards 5548. This market has entered in the oversold zone but still there is no sign of recovery. I have plotted RSI on my daily chart. If I take two days lows, then it is giving negative divergence. This is forcing me to believe that Nifty may again try to test of break 5670 levels. Break of 5670 will give 5600.

If I try to trade long then I have a strong condition that Nifty must stand tall above 5740 marks. Expect a soft to weak start for the market then we need to see on follow up.  

Strategy for Nifty March future – I have already warned about premium in the last trading session. It has lost its premium from 61 points to 8 points. This is not a small thing. I have already said for the support at 5700-5710 which was also working well. Now, keen an eye on 5700 marks. If it breaks 5700 and sustain for 5-10 minutes then you can expect further fall towards 5650 to 5600 levels. On higher side nothing can be safe as long Nifty march future stand below 5760. I have nothing great to add. Hope you are not buying anything.

S&P 500 – I do not know how market will try to conclude for spending cut but I strongly believe that it is not good for USA. Market should consider this ‘spending cut’ as trigger for selling. I know that many may deny even technical charts are looking dead to conclude. I am repeating that S&P 500 will not get any easy cross above 1531. This is frustrating but you cannot get a top without this kind of frustration. It was equally true for Nifty also near 6100. US market or European market, it is the matter of time but that time is not coming.

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