01 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: You can expect hand over of fall what we have seen yesterday. It is a confirmation that sooner or later NIFTY will hit my target and support at 5548.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 01 March 2013: -

On 28 February 2013, FII sold INR 1317.79 crs and DII bought INR 417.94 crs.

Do not get shocked with FII sell figures. We were this kind of hint during trading hours itself as finance minister was not clear over DATT (Double Taxation Avoidance Agreement). Market was not disappointed with budget. It was nervous on FII money.

If you are saying that this is a bad budget then I can tell you that this budget is still better than what I was anticipating. He has not moved with populist actions a lot before elections. What else you were expecting. Now, you should try to take out “a politician” from finance minister. It is known fact that in India politics has higher priority than economy.

So, what is the reason of fall? I say, finish this matter for ever. If I am paying tax in India if I am earning from Indian stock market then FII should also do the same. Irrespective of how FII reacts, just impose it. If someone wants to go then they are free to go. Finance minister should not scare about them. It can never be a better idea to decide policy looking on day to day movement of stock market.

I have published during my intraday update that market will fall once budget speech gets over. Look at what happened. My technical charts were giving me that hint and we acted on those.

There was first hint in opening minute itself when Nifty failed to cross my spotted resistance at 5850. This failure was giving me a hint that it is going to happen.

If you remember, I have already warned you on the outcome of H&S pattern. We have seen the fall but we should expect Nifty coming near to 200 SMA which is at 5548 and target for H&S is also at 5548. I do not know how and why but it will come. I am not saying that it will come today. I will take a cautious approach for today’s trading.  

We were short very actively on Bank Nifty from 12250, we got almost 800 points of fall and shorted RCOM Future, and we got 15% dip yesterday. Yes, we hold in just one trade irrespective of subscribers’ quantity.

Now, I can highlight that when almost everyone was busy in betting 6300 and a new all-time high, we said for topping formation with a bet that Nifty will not cross 6126.

Another thing to note is India GDP Data, which came at 4.50%. I have already warned about such possibility from last year itself and repeated same after CSO data too.

I especially like to SUZLON. Why it slipped by 30%. Take a note that I have warned about this stock also for this kind of sudden crack. Equally, I had a buy on it from 16-17 but I have advised every to book above 24. Do not tell me that promoters are still honest. One after another, they are playing with market and retail investors. Save your money, do not expect that SEBI can do anything about it. Look at series – Optocuit, HDIL, WELCORP, COREEDUCTION, UNITECH, IVRCLINFRA now SUZLON and RCOM. You all know who were suggesting buy on these kind of stocks from months and years.

This is the reason that I deal only in index stocks.

Strategy for Nifty March future – First of all, this future is trading with premium of 61 points. I have warned about decaying of premium in the month of January and February also. So, note that first important things that this premium will not sustain. Technical support is almost 50 points away. Means you can expect support at 5700. Break will create further panic. It is looking like to come at 5680 first and then even 5630 which can be final support for short term (means 8-10 trading sessions).  

S&P 500 – Dow Jones hit 14149.15 levels yesterday and it was very close to all time high. Trading all time high was at 14198 in the year 2007 and closing high was 14164. If I can say that NIFTY would not able to cross 6126 then I deserve to be listen. Sooner or later, US market will follow India way (Do not ask me what will be target in India then). I have strong technical reason to believe and my little fundamental knowledge is also giving me hint. S&P may (I am not putting nail yet) not cross 1531 again. We will get a clear answer now – say, TONIGHT.