08 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has experienced a constant resistance above 6024 levels and hence slipped to hit 5980. If sustains below 5980 then expect 5940-5915.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have said yesterday that if you want to save yourself from choppy moves then trade in second half. Look at the result. Fall came in last 30 minutes of trades. One need to understand that it does not matter if it hit 6042 marks in opening seconds but it has not sustain above 6024 levels during practical trading. Hence it has generated a sell to give a figure of 5980.

Now if it sustain below 5980 then we can expect fall to hit 5965 first. A further break will give 5940 to 5915 levels. You can ask if it really going to happen. I have already discussed about MACD and VIX behavior in past.

If you are shocked that market is not giving good rise above 6000 then I can say that technical charts were already giving signals that moves will be very limited. It is other question if it is giving sell or not.

You can look at the technical indicators in the given technical chart. On hourly Nifty chart it is showing that here we have completed the third wave and now perhaps we are in forth wave.  I am feeling that third wave can come at 5915 in worse case. Logically we can expect 5940 as the target. I am not in hurry to start buying due to some concerning technical indicators but I will try to take spontaneous decision.   It will not be India specific fall; we may see a global sell off for this week of trades. I have already hinted in my weekly article.

Conclusion Nifty: I am considering that Nifty has not sustained above 6024 and hence fall came. We came at 5980.Now sustained trading below 5980 will give us further 40 points dip to take a move towards 5940. You can expect technical resistance at 6024 and then 6042. Let us see the fall first then we will decide if we can buy dip or not.

S&P 500 – I have said a buy when it was below 1400, stating that it will bounce form 200 DMA. I have issued a target of 1470 and said that it may come near to 1475 but fail to cross. If crosses then 1500 will be on card. We have at 1468 and then fall is coming. Do expect more fall towards 1440. if breaks 1440 then it will act as a trigger for more fall.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar