27 December 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty moved higher above 5900 marks. Short covering may give us a rise towards 5950+ levels. Crucial support in the downside will be at 5880. Whole month it was 50 points higher or lower from 5900.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It was giving all signs that it has higher probability of breaking 5838 but it has saved. Once it has saved then it has given what it was supposed to give. For whole month nifty is moving either 500 points higher or 50 points lower from 5900 marks. This is looking as consolidation. The out come of consolidation can be encouraging if it manages to cross 5967 levels.

We have derivative expiry today. If it has to break 5967 on higher side then today will be the best to do so. I must say that I do not think that we should give a positive discount to US fiscal cliff problem. It is still true that if market is discounting then it must know the outcome better than anyone else.

One can look at the chart. There is a short term channel where it is forming lower low and lower high. It is very close to break it on higher side. This is suggesting me that if it manages to sustain above 5924 then we have higher possibility of hitting 5950 to 5965.

We need to be aware from another fact also that this market will do what least people will expect. Although charts might be say for rise but I can say that movement will be very limited on higher side.

I have plotted 20 days exponential moving average which has acted as good trading support. Remember 50 points up or down can change views for trading only. For direction, we need to see the break above 5967 to come in reality.

Conclusion Nifty: It has saved 5838 and closed above 5900 marks. Now it has again opened the room for a move towards 5950 to 5965. We may see rise backed by short covering on derivative expiry day. I need to be clear, I am still not hoping to any decisive crossover even on higher side. Until we get any solution over US fiscal cliff we may not able to see decisive breakout. Rest of the Asian market is doing that on different reasons. You will expect up, it will go down and you will expect down, it will go up.   

S&P 500 – It came very close to 1418 support. It is already trading with nervousness. This market is my prime concern. Once it starts closing below 1418 or if it start trading below 1412 then it will see a decisive fall. Fall can hit 1385 levels. I have already suggested for resistance at 1445.It will be so good if we would have such disciplined trading on Nifty also. We heard that president is back from vacation. We can hope some words of exchange today.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar