21 December 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do you know that Nifty open at 5915 for this month and it is still at 5916. Charts are suggesting that it may loose patience now any moment !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Before beginning, I am updating that right at 7 am, 21^st December 2012 Dow Future is down by 201 points. So impact is definitely expected now in the opening minutes. Soft opening may give us opening below 5890 levels. US policymakers are making unnecessary delay. Can I say that global market starts loosing patience? People are going for Christmas vacation and fiscal cliff remains unsolved.

Another important point to note is that we have seen massive slide on Gold and Silver price last night.

Let us come back to the technical of Nifty and India market. Look at the behavior of MACD. It has created a sandwiched sell signal. You might be feeling that world is still stable but technical indicators are not yet comfortable. I have already discussed about negative divergence on MACD relative to the 5815 and 5956 top.

Even RSI is not as comfortable as past week. I still need to say that market need to sustain lower for the confirmation of fall. I must say that on higher side it cannot be easy to cross 5950 – 5965 levels. in the lower side, we may see weak opening that this may be ‘bear gap’ down. If that happens then we can see it sliding towards 5850 by today’s trading only.

We got too many things from winter session of parliament. Market has got almost all good news and it has not reacted yet for this month of trades. It seems that market has fulfilled its apatite. We have seen high in banking and metal stocks yesterday. So we can say that practically most stocks are still rising with higher high.

On Nifty we are almost 40 points away from high of 5965. if bounce back has to come then it can come on steel ad banking stocks. I am not betting anything.

Conclusion Nifty: I strongly believe that we may see this market loosing patience. Technical resistance will be at 5950 to 5967 levels. Technical support will be at 5880. Break below 5880 should give us 5850 levels. if it has sustain then it need to save 5880.

S&P 500 – I am still quoting that the bounce form 1345 should end near 1445. In order to move higher it need to close above 1445 for two days in a row. If condition satisfied then only we can think about the test or break of 1475. Today’s trading will be decisive. US market futures are heavily down.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar