17 December to 21 December 2012: Wave Analysis: Pullback came from higher levels but not enough signs of anything remarkable. 5967 to 5838 will be decisive. Rise may get sold at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

This week outlook: -

I have mentioned resistance based on Band Bollinger last week which was at 5967. It hit a top near to than then we have seen one profit taking which continues till 5839. These were intraday pullback and then rise. Weekly charts are still not very convincing for 6000 marks yet?

Many market men are feeling that we will get 6000 or 6100 or may be a newer high to. Even I also used to think in that ways. Most bitter truth of this market is that it forces you to think in that way always near to some top formation. I need to that many technical indicators are turning sluggish. You can yourself try to conclude looking those technical indicators. It is also a noticeable fact that our market has never slipped for two weeks in a row from last 21 weeks.

We have RBI’s monetary policy review. Market is still hoping for rate cut. I feel that market is expecting at 25 basic points CRR cut. To be honest, I do not think that it is coming but I cannot deny such situations.

If you are bullish then I am sure that you are betting on rate cut. It is also true that if Nifty has to hit 6000 then rate cut might be trigger points. In my view, it is not a meaningful approach for 25 basic points CRR cut. Market and economy needs repo rate cut.

One think that I am already suggesting from past many weeks, you may like it or you may not like it but you cannot ignore it. Politics is still at a point which can disturb market. A tussle coming over ‘reservation in promotion’ bill, it is a fully expected step. Let us see how government handles their ‘M square’ factors.

Conclusion Nifty – Charts are suggesting for a technical resistance at 5967 levels and support at 5838 levels. This may be applicable for first half. I am feeling that we will get a decisive view by this week itself. It is not a short after pullback. As long as 5838 holds then I can prefer only higher levels to short. Break below 5838 will give us 5770- to 5754.

S&P 500 – Pull back has not came the way I was expecting. I am still sure that S&P 500 will come in the zone of 1385 to 1400. Then, it might try to prepare for Santa rally.  Will it cross 1475 in recovery? We need for the time to answer.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar