05 November to 09 November 2012: Wave Analysis: A break below 5630 and then a rebound. Take a note that nothing is changing. It was an expected rebound.
You must read previous articles and
watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.
This week outlook: -
I was expecting a break below 5630
for last week and we got it. Then, we have seen a rebound from lower levels of
5583. In my daily wave analysis, I have quoted for 5580 as support. I have
quoted also that after breaching neck line of 5630, it will try to regain
higher for once. It came in line with expectation but little higher in
magnitude. That throws Nifty near 5700 marks.
Firstly we need to understand that
Friday’s booster came from global market recovery. Unfortunately global rally
seems to be dying on Friday night itself. It happened perhaps to satisfy the
charts.
Beginning from 4770, we have almost
finished fifth wave. Now current fall can give us the beginning of wave ‘A’
which must be corrective in nature. So, is it happening?
That’s the question.
Weekly charts are giving some signs
of silence in pause. Here is concern that we may have negative biasing. This
negative biasing can turn to a “panic mode”. We are heading to a very crucial
week.
- We have
There is another very important
technical point. We have seen higher weekly close last week but this gain was
not justified by India VIX. It is fluctuating in the range of 12.80 to 15.80. It
is really going to interesting now. Based on this, yes, I can press a panic button
too.
We have closed at 5695 levels. We
need to see a dip and a support at 5630 levels. You must note that we have
H&S pattern. Traditionally, it has rebounded to cross n-line. Well, I can
say that we need a fresh break below 5630. As long as we are saying below 5730,
there is no need to think about anything for rise.
I hope that we will see selling
intensifying after US president levels.
Regards,
Praveen Kumar
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