23 October 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: it has saved 5630 and now ready to break 5730 on higher side. Even after break it will not give great move. Expect 5757, or max at 5775. Intraday fall is expected from higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Yesterday was supposed to be the last best opportunity for nifty to break lower. It has denied even after massive dip in US market. Last night, US markets were flat while European market has lost some more ground. Can we expect some impact on our market? Well, we may not see any great impact. We are ready for another dull opening. After opening, I like to say that you should wait for the higher break of 5730 levels. (I have already discussed the importance of the range of 5730 to 5630).

Crossover of 5730 will give us a move towards 5757 levels. Any traded above 5757 to 5775 will face massive resistance. I can conclude that use levels above 5757 to short indices and prefer to press stop loss above 5775. We have a chance to see intraday dip if such higher levels comes. (Note- above are quotes for Nifty spot). Remember today is 13^th trading day after hitting a high at 5815 levels.

Suppose, if it fail to break 5730 again then it will repeat the same story. I have already plotted seven waves consolidation. We still need to see the outcome of this consolidation. Charts are showing that it is taking lows higher. Till now, traders get excited by 50 points of rise and get depressed with 50 points of fall. Fact is that we have not seen anything great in October month series. This is giving me a hint that we may end up things on wild note.

I may say some positive crossover for Indian market but unfortunately I cannot repeat same statement for global marks. S&P 500 is ending up near 1432. It is near to the support of 1424 but not going to favour bulls to any great extent. My view remains same that 1475 may remains a yearly top. Break below 1424-1418 range will result 2-3% further dip. S&P 500 may see some decisive fall due to poor corporate earning. Question is that can we stand against all those odds. No, surely not. It does not matter how much higher we are moving but fall is unquestionable.

Just think, Greece gained 65% from its recent lows. Does it make any sense?

Regards,

Praveen Kumar